Gummy Bears and Gymnastics: Path to London 2012: Russia

I have already digressed extensively on all the things I find wrong with the code of points so for now let's move on from that. This series will be dedicated to what we can (or should hope to) expect in London 2012.
The 5 members team (another stupidity of our beloved FIG) is a frugal attempt to return the sport to the all arounders. With the new code of points, 3 up 3 count TF, 2 per country qualifications onto finals, and all, the last couple of quads has been the reign of the apparatus specialists. As a counter measure to the event specialist teams like China's MAG, FIG is yet again trying to remedy the problems with another major change. For some reason someone at FIG thought reducing the team to 5 members was a good idea, go figure!
With that change some figures in the sport, like He Kexin, Tatiana Nabieva, Anna Li, Cheng Fei, Anna Pavlova will find it very difficult to make a comeback. Two event specialists will be very rare, not to say one event gymnasts. If they cannot contribute big time on at least 3 events, I find it hard for us to see these individuals out there competing for the major teams.

So in this series I will be investigating the teams we will see in London, and their possible line-ups.

RUSSIA

Russia has some great gymnasts, but not as much depth as some. The injuries problems are very serious and I have to say I am concerned with the possibilities of further injuries, the likes of Komova, Grishina and the lot just don't look at sturdy as some of us would like.

The possibilities for team Russia:

1. Viktoria Komova: if she does not get injured or has a meltdown, Komova will be in London. She has some great gymnastics, she is athletic and balletic, a combination not easy to find these days. She has had a long and hard year. With the ankle problems that just refused to heal, little training time, and some serious frustration, Komova just did not look like herself at these year's Worlds. It is tough for a top notch athlete when things are just not going your way. But she did it, she went out there and gave what she had, some of us thought it was good enough, others didn't, but she got that under her belt and that is a good thing.
Last year, as a junior, she rocked the Youth Olympics Games, the Junior Europeans, and every other meet she was part of. She had a super vault, the Amanar, which she performed well. This year however the Amanar was not there. Although we saw her training it in Tokyo she went with the easier DTY. She can score very well on this vault, but I really think she is going to need the Amanar and can get it back in time.
Her bars, although they have a rather odd composition these days with that strangely placed half turn before the dismount, are still very good and will probably remain so. I actually think it is great that she has the full double back dismount because she has been very proficient at sticking it.
Beam has clearly been a struggle for Vika. It was the event she had the most problems in Tokyo, but her prelim routine shows the potential she has in this event. Her front tuck is just so high and beautiful, it showcases her technique and ability on the BB. Her floor exercise is just great, it really marries all that she has to offer, artistry and strength. However in Tokyo with not enough training time and just not the stamina to get those floor routines through, Vika was really struggling. Hopefully a year will do her well.

2. Aliya Mustafina: Last year Mustafina burst onto the scene. She also has a nice marriage of balletic ability and difficult skills. She has also something Russia desperately needs: mental toughness. Mustafina did falter on the beam finals in Rotterdam, but aside from that she was Russia's rock. A bit of that would have gone a long way in helping these year's world team. It is not only because of her scores that this team needs Mustafina back, but also because she has this blind determination and unwavering fierceness that we all know just cannot be taught.
After tearing her ACL at Europeans this year however nobody really knows what Aliya will be capable of. I find it difficult to believe she will be back to performing what was already a very sloppy Amanar, as well as her triple off beam and her 3 1/2 on floor. These tough twisting skills may be out of her reach after this injury as she was never very clean on them anyway and cannot afford short landings on twisting elements. I believe her ability on beam and bars, as well as stylish floor will definitely go a long way, and I would not put it pass her to up her difficulty everywhere even without some of her big twisting skills.
There is something seriously good about Mustafina and it is not just her piercing stoic stare.

3. Anastasia Grishina: Grishina is the up and coming Russian junior. She has some seriously good gymnastic, and although she is not as artistic as some of her countrywomen, she can put most of the other gymnasts out there to shame. She is powerful and has great skills. Her bars are clean, and apart from a sometimes dead hang transition from LB to HB, she can score very well here. Her releases are high and she has good transitions, the full pirouette to tkachev into pak can help her get some connection bonus. She is also very good on beam and seems to be more secure on her connections than some of her teammates (Yes Musty I am talking about you!). Her Onodi to illusion turn is really a great, different combination. On FX Grishina is powerful with a double arabian and triple that are just very high and very clean. She also packs up some decent dance elements with the double Memmel turn and the double turn with leg at horizontal. She has been competing a DTY, and she has a tendency to land with the chest rather low so I don't know if there is any possibility of upgrading here. One thing concerns me about Grishina: she has not proven herself in the big girls league. While Komova has struggled, she has been there and done that, and when all that pressure piles up in London 2012 that might count a lot.

4. Anastasia Sidorova: Sidorova is another good junior from Russia. If she did make this Olympic team she would really be chosen for two event: her BB and FX. She can pull a DTY on vault, but Russia has better, cleaner DTY and they are really looking for the Amanars, while Sidorova's bars are quite weak. She does have big skills like a pak salto and high Tkachev, but she has a soft back on her kips and some not great leg form so I don't see her contributing here. Where she can definitely contribute is beam and floor. On floor she has very powerful tumbling with a full in piked. She needs to clean her feet and legs a bit, but she will be a solid player in prelims on floor. Her beam is the highlight of her work, she is solid and has two good tumbling lines and a switch to ring. If Komova, Grishina, and Mustafina are ready to compete in London and are doing the all around I find it difficult for Sidorova to be on this team, as Russia will be looking to add a powerful vaulter and floor worker to this trio, but there is a lot of time left and Sidorova does do the all around so she is a part of this puzzle nevertheless.

5. Tatiana Nabieva: Nabieva did two events in Tokyo, vault and bars, and she did a decent job at them taking even a medal in the latter. However I really feel she needs to upgrade on both events to be in this 5 members team. Whether this is possible or not I don't know. I believe she is capable of it on bars, she showed a very clean set to take the silver in the EF in Tokyo, and she has showed more difficulty in the past, with even a skill named after her last year. On vault her form was never that good was it? And going back to the Amanar might be dangerous and have too many deductions built in to be worth it anyway. Her personality alone should get her a spot on my book, but Russia has a real chance to take the gold in this Olympic TF and they need people to step up, hopefully Tatiana can do so. With only a good bar set she is not going to make it, she needs that big, clean vault.

6. Knesia Afanasyeva: the 2011 floor champion has a great chance of making this team. Why? Because 1. she is fabulous on floor, 2. she has a consistent DTY that has scored very well and in the absence of those Amanars Russia will need every tenth they can get, 3. she is a AA, 4. she has been solid for her team in the past, although she has many times not put it together for herself. Afanasyeva can be a huge asset on floor, a solid vaulter and she can do beam and bars on prelim. What she needs? To stay healthy and keep her head on her shoulders. She has had in the past the tendency to be a bit of a headcase, she needs to keep it together. Being able to compose a solid beam routine that she is capable of hitting, even if it has lower difficulty, would also not hurt her. I think she is competing for a spot against the likes of Sidorova, Demy and Belo, so she needs to be at her best.

7. Yulia Belokobylskaya: Belo is a great gymnast and she has delivered for Russia at the 2011 Europeans and Worlds. Her problem again is that she has a great event: floor, and then everything else is shaky. She is proficient on bars, but not better than Komova, Musty, Grishina or even Nabieva, and her beam, although good, is not as solid. Her floor is great, her 1.5 twist to triple is good and again her dance elements are in the D range. She could use a more difficult leap series and a double pike to end, but she might have some upgrades in mind for next year. Her start value as is in 6.0 so she has better scoring possibility than some of the other contenders, the problem is, unlike Afanasyeva, Belo can only really contribute on floor.

8. Anna Dementyeva: Demy is outstanding, I think she has a great smile and vivacity. She has also good skills and can do the AA. Her weakness is certainly vault. She just has not been able to add a solid DTY to her arsenal, and I think she needs to really work on this. Nevertheless she is efficient in the other three apparatus and as such has a good chance to get that 5th spot on the team. I can definitely see Demy there. Her bars are clean, her transitions are good, and if she can get that Tkachev a tad higher I am going to be a fan for life. Her beam is clean and has good difficulty and so is her floor. If she can be at Euro Champs 2011 form, she can be a good contributor to the team and do the AA in prelims and an event or two in finals. Vault is where she really hampers her position. I don't know how much the Russian coaches are going to invest in having a vault specialist to try to pull their score up on this event. If Musty cannot do a Amanar, and maybe even Komova might have difficulties in getting hers back, the Russian coaches might be willing to take out someone like Demy or Afan to get a strong vaulter in. In this case, although she is a more solid AA, I think Demy would loose her spot as Afan has better scoring ability on floor and vault. What Demy has on her side is that she is a decent floor worker and is more solid than Afan on bars and beam. Between these to I think it is up in the air, in will come down to Musty's consistency on floor and beam as Demy and Afan would replace her on these if there is the case.

Yulia Inshina: Inshina has one thing on her side: she went to Tokyo and did her job. No headcasing, no loosing it, just calm and collected. Even made the beam final and stayed on there too. Her floor is also solid with some good difficulty although not as high as some of her teammates. I the advent of loosing someone like Demy, Inshina would be a great table setter for team Russia. Inshina's bar and vault are not up there, but if people fall along the way she will get her place in the sun.

The wild card: A vault specialist. Maybe Pavlova, some have suggested Polyan, but I really do not see in Russia right now a vault specialist whose score might be worth loosing what Demy can bring on beam and bars, and what Afan can bring on floor, but that is my position. Both Polyan and pavlova can also do beam and floor in prelims. With 2 solid DTY and one Amanar, as well as great bar routines Russia can certainly take the US and China in my opinion.

My team:
1. Vika Komova
2. Aliya Musty
3. Knesia Afan
4. Nastia Grishina
5. Anna Demy

Alternate:

Yulia Inshina

And this is how I see it in 3-up-3-count TF/ in no particular order as this depends a lot on the composition of the routines and the mental game.

VAULT:

KOMOVA